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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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