Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
